What needs to happen to get flights on track for the climate?
There isn’t any way to fly without producing a lot of emissions which harm our climate. Yet the government’s plans to tackle aviation emissions by 2030 doesn’t seek to reduce flights at all. Instead, their strategy to reduce carbon emissions from flying relies entirely on technological developments and there are huge problems with these; new types of planes don’t exist yet, alternative types of fuels would cause more problems than they solve, and carbon reduction methods such as offsetting don’t actually work.
We were sceptical that the government’s strategy would do what it claimed, and we don’t have time to waste. So we commissioned experts at respected think-tank Chatham House to calculate whether the government’s plans are realistic, and, if not, what more we need to do as a country by 2030 to bring down aviation emissions to a safe level by 2050.
The researchers found that:
The measures that the government plans to rely on to bring aviation emissions down will not achieve their carbon reduction targets. There are many barriers to these technologies: they are decades away from being ready (if they ever actually are!), and will not result in the reductions in carbon emissions that the government claims.
Because of this, the total number of flights needs to go down to cut emissions and protect the climate. As a country we need to fly less far and less frequently for the rest of this decade.
To achieve the reduction in carbon emissions set out in the government’s plan, we will need to reduce flying by 36% by 2030 (compared to 2019 levels).
What does a 36% reduction in flights look like?
Because of this unequal distribution of flights among the UK population* it would be possible to achieve large reductions in carbon emissions without affecting the travel habits of most people, who already fly rarely (if ever).
For example, to hit the 36% reduction target, all that would be needed would be for the 23% of people who currently take more than one return flight per year to reduce their flying by one trip, and for no one to take more than four return flights per year. The remaining 77% of us, who already fly once or less each year, wouldn’t need to change our travel habits.
This reduction in flying by the small group of people who fly most is an incredibly reasonable, moderate level of behaviour change in order to reach the government’s carbon reduction targets for aviation
But if we’re serious about the climate crisis, we need go further:
At the moment, the government’s climate plan only takes into consideration the carbon dioxide emissions (just a fraction of the total climate impact of flying).
Planes emit other gases which heat up the climate - and these other gases make up two-thirds of the total warming from flying.
So, to bring the aviation sector onto a trajectory that’s safe for the climate, we need to account for non-CO2 effects. That would mean reducing flying by 60% in 2030 (compared to 2019 levels), rather than the 36% needed when only carbon emissions are taken into account.
Achieving that 60% reduction would require that no-one takes more than one return flight per year. This is something that won’t affect the majority of us in Britain, as 77% already don’t exceed one return flight per year.
Why is this report important?
This report shows that the government’s plans to reduce aviation emissions just isn’t’ enough. Without reducing flights, we will not see a sufficient reduction in emissions to meet the government’s own targets, let alone those set out by climate scientists. As such, it calls for more action to reduce flights. By pointing out that it is possible to reach the government’s emissions reduction targets without effecting most people, this report also makes it easier for politicians to support demand reduction measures, such as a frequent flyer levy.
At Possible, we’re committed to speeding up action on climate change, showing what needs to be done, coming up with fair and effective solutions, and urging politicians to take bolder steps towards a zero-carbon Britain. This report is part of that mission.
*In the UK, a small group of people who fly frequently are responsible for most of the emissions from flights; just 15% of people take 70% of all the flights. Most of us don’t fly very often - around half of people in the UK don’t fly at all in any given year, while around a quarter take just one return flight each year. Access to flying is also highly dependent on income levels; the fifth of people who make the most money take a plane five times more often than the poorest fifth of people.